I love one game playoffs, it’s a great system. These guys have played 18 times this year, and the home team has won 15. Minn won the season series 10-8, and have the better bullpen. The pitching matchup is pretty solid, and it is two young guys, so who knows how they will handle the pressure. The White Sox barely made it through the end of the season, losing 18 of 30 and 8 of their final 12 during a pennant race. They got swept on the road at Minn turning a 2.5 game lead into a .5 deficit. Now they get an emotional home win, and I think momentum goes out the door. They get another home game, I am not sure why since Minn won the season series (probably record within division) and if they win again, that is some huge momentum going into the playoffs. I think this is a disadvantage for TB getting the winner of this game.
I lean towards Minn because they looked better down the stretch, 6 of their last 7 games against each other, but those were all in Minnesota. The Twins are 2-3 vs the White Sox when Blackburn pitches, and he is 0-3 with a 7.2 ERA in Chicago. The White Sox are 2-2 when Danks pitches against Minn, and he is 1-1 with an 8.99 ERA at home vs the Twins. Both pitchers throw well more often then not, but are prone to get beat up 3 times every 10 outings. Danks’ last outing was at home vs Cle a day after giving up the lead to minn, and he got beat up for 7 runs over 4 innings…that was, however, after giving up 0 runs in his previous two outings (13 total innings). Blackburn took home one of those wins in the three game sweep last week over the Sox, and threw 5 innings and giving up 2 runs on 8 hits. His previous two outings resulted in two losses by way of 12 runs over 5.1 total innings.
Blackburn is 8-3, 2.95 at home, 3-7, 5.20 on the road
Danks is 4-6. 3.96 at home, 7-3, 2.95 on the road.
It looks like their good be a lot of runs in this one, but pitchers tend to bring their focus and best games in the playoffs. Neither pitcher has been here before, so the pressure could get to them, and Blackburn has had two more days of rest then Danks. I like the Twins just barely because they have shown more steadiness down the stretch, and I like the pitcher who has been a bit more consistent over the full season pitching on more rest. He also showed us a lot coming through with a good outing in the most important game he has pitched all year, especially coming off of two straight bad starts. If it was even money I would have a much more difficult time picking a winner, but getting the Twins at +130 is good enough for me.
The total is set at 9.5, and 5 for the first five innings. The first 5 over may not be a bad idea, and if both pitchers throw well, you can get the Twins at +.5 (-105) for a slight hedge in case both pitchers are dealing.
